Dana Barros 1994-1995
Outlier NBA Seasons #2
Let’s take a trip back to the 1994-1995 NBA season. The Houston Rockets led by reigning MVP Hakeem Olajuwon, will eventually raise the Larry O’Brien trophy for a second consecutive year. In the 1994 Finals, they defeated Patrick Ewing’s New York Knicks and in 1995, Shaquille O’Neal’s Orlando Magic. The MVP after Olojuwan was David Robinson of the San Antonio Spurs. While Michael Jordan takes a brief leave of absence, the NBA has returned to form with dominant bigs.
But that’s not who I want to talk about. In fact, the player I want to discuss had a listed playing weight of just 163 lbs, stood 5’11 and wore #3 for the Philadelphia 76er’s. You might be thinking to yourself, wasn’t Allen Iverson playing at Georgetown in 1994-1995? You’d be right. The player I want to discuss is Dana Barros.
Barros was born in Boston, Massachusetts, had a distinguished collegiate career at Boston College and played over 300 games for the Boston Celtics. Originally drafted by the Seattle Supersonics in 1989, where he would back-up future Hall of Famer Gary Payton, Barros played two seasons in Philadelphia, before getting to his hometown Celtics.
(Seattle traded Barros to the Charlotte Hornets for Kendall Gill, only for Barros to be shipped two days later to Philly in a package for Hersey Hawkins. Ironically, Gill would be traded for Hawkins two seasons later, but that’s another story for another time.)
During that 1993-1994 season, Barros saw a major increase in playing time and his per game numbers all drastically improved. However, the Sixers were a struggling franchise after their fourth straight losing season, a trend they wouldn't’ snap until 1998-99. The roster was in flux. In the draft, they selected 7'6 Shawn Bradley out of BYU over Anfernee Hardaway and Jamal Mashburn. At the deadline they shipped Jeff Hornacek to Utah for Jeff Malone. At year's end the head coach and general managers were both fired and the 76ers were again headed to the lottery.
Insert John Lucas to take over the head coaching position and executive duties. Lucas was fired by the San Antonio Spurs, despite a 55-27 season, after losing in a gentleman’s sweep to the Utah Jazz. Picking 6th in the draft, the 76ers again elected to go big, selecting Sharon Wright out of Clemson over players such as Temple’s Eddie Jones and Michigan’s Jalen Rose. The aforementioned Malone only played 19 games due to injury. (Ironically, the following year in a draft loaded with top tier bigs, they finally elected to go small taking Jerry Stackhouse over his North Carolina teammate Rasheed Wallace and high school phenom Kevin Garnett.)
Now that we got that out of the way, let’s get to the whole point of this read. Before going deep into the statistical significance, here were Barros’ season numbers:
82 GP (T-1st)
40.5 MPG (2nd)
20.6 PPG (18th)
7.5 APG (11th)
1.8 SPG (10th)
.464 3PT% (3rd)
.899 FT% (3rd)
347 FTM (21st)
.631 TS% (6th)
12.7 WS (6th)
10.5 OWS (2nd)
5.0 BOX +/- (12th)
20.9 PER (13th)
5.8 VORP (6th)
Just on the surface, that’s an incredible season. He was selected to his only All-Star Team in addition to taking home the Most Improved Player Award and participating in the AT&T Long Distance Shootout (Three-Point Contest). He also set a then NBA record during this season by making at least one three-pointer in 89 consecutive games from December 1994 to January 1996. But let’s dig a little deeper.
He finished 4th in made three-pointers (197), behind John Starks (217), Mookie Blaylock and Dan Marjerle (199). However, consider Barros’ 3pt percentage (.464) over others, Starks (.355), Blaylock (.359) and Majerle (.363). That’s more than 10% better than his league leading peers. For context, in the 2020-2021 season, if you look at the top four players in 3pt made, these are their percentages: Stephen Curry (.421), Buddy Hield (.391), Damian Lillard (.391) and Duncan Robinson (.408). Largest difference being a mere 3%. To find the next highest 3PTM total that was 10% below Curry’s 42%, you’d go all the way down 95th in 3PTM with De’Aaron Fox.
“I would love to be part of this era. Just 15 years too early, man.”
For more context on how statistically great this season was, look at how he ranks in the categories that really stand out. In Value Over Replacement Player (ranks in order) 1. David Robinson, 2. John Stockton, 3. Scottie Pippen, 4. Karl Malone, 5. Clyde Drexler, 6. Barros, 7. Shaquille O’Neal. Those other six players combined for 66 All-Stars and 61 All-NBA’s. The first five were all on the original Dream Team in 1992 with Shaq making his Olympic debut in 1996 on Dream Team III. From a statistical standpoint, for this one season, Barros’ was amongst some of the greatest players to ever pick up a basketball.
In offensive win shares (10.5), he finished only behind David Robinson, the season's MVP. Barros was a narrow 0.2 behind Robinson’s 10.7. The gap in offensive win shares between Barros and the 3rd best player that season, Stockton’s 9.9, was three times greater than the gap between Barros and Robinson.
While his scoring was “just” good for 18th in the league at 20.6, he actually finished 36th in FGA per game at only 14.2. When another undersized Philadelphia guard was a similar age, wearing #3 for the 76ers, Iverson took nearly twice that many in 2001-2002 at 27.8 FGA per game. Of the top 20 players in PPG that season, Barros took the least amount of shots per game.
His assists at 7.5 per game were 11th best in the league that year. However, of all the players with 7.5 APG or more, Barros led them all in scoring. Mark Jackson, who also had a 7.5 APG average that season only scored 7.6 PPG that year for the Indiana Pacers. In fact, the only players in the entire league to score more than Barros with just five assists per game or more were:
Anfernee Hardaway - 20.9 PPG, 7.2 APG, 3.4 TO
Gary Payton - 20.6 PPG, 7.1 APG, 2.5 TO
Scottie Pippen - 21.4 PPG, 5.2 APG, 3.4 TO
Barros - 20.6 PPG, 7.5 APG, 3.0 TO
Now sprinkle in the three-pointers made by these individuals with their percentages:
Hardaway - 1.1 3PM per, 34.9%
Payton - 0.9 3PM per, 30.2%
Pippen - 1.4 3PM per, 34.4%
Barros - 2.4 3PM per, 46.4%
Of all the players to assist on 7.5 APG or more per game that season, only Mookie Blaylock (17.2 PPG) along with Barros’ were also the team’s leading scorer. The 76ers second leading scorer (who qualified based on games played) was Clarence Weatherspoon at 18.1 PPG. Of those 12 players to have 7.5 APG or more, the majority of them had another 20+ PPG scorer to throw the ball to. Some even had multiple 20+ PPG teammates. The only two players to have a lower scoring option to throw to was Blaylock (Steve Smith 16.2 PPG) and Pooh Richardson (Loy Vaught 17.5 PPG). Both Smith and Vaught were far more efficient scorers than Weatherspoon that year, however. During that season, Weatherspoon’s 43.9% FG was actually the second lowest in the NBA of the 26 players to score 18 PPG or more.
It’s just another reminder how ahead of his time this season was. Last year in the NBA, there were seven players with 20+ PPG and 7+ APG. To extend that further, there were 18 players with 20+ PPG and 5 APG+. Of those 18 players, the highest 3PT% was by Steph Curry at 42.1%.
Yes, the 76ers finished a lousy 24-58. But let’s take a look at some of the standout games during that season by Barros:
January 4, 1995 @ Suns, L 122-127: 28 pts, 8-16 FG, 19 ast, 2 stl, 1 to
January 21, 1995 vs. Lakers, W 117-113: 41 pts, 14-23 FG, 8 ast, 2 stl, 1 to
January 27, 1995 vs. Suns, L 107-108: 39 pts, 9-12 3FG, 7 ast, 3 stl, 1 blk
March 14, 1995 vs. Rockets, L 136-107: 50 pts, 21-26 FG, 8 ast, 6 reb, 2 stl
April 8, 1995 vs. Magic, W 109-99: 25 pts, 15 ast, 10 reb, 3 stl
Besides the 29 point loss to the defending/future champion Rockets, the other four games were very close against some of the league's best, including two wins. The Magic and Suns in fact won their divisions.
While some might argue Barros’ numbers from behind the three-point line were aided by a rule change, I would say yes and no. For three seasons starting in 1994-1995, the NBA shortened the distance of the line from 23 ft 9 in to a uniform 22ft (the original corner distance) all the way around the basket. While historically, yes, all NBA players benefitted during this three year period with a shorter deep line. But when comparing his number to his peers who were all playing at the same time, it’s not that big of a deal.
The five seasons prior to 1994-1995 season the 3PT% leaders were (in order of season):
Steve Kerr - 50.7%
Jim Lee - 46%
Dana Barros - 44.6%
BJ Armstrong - 45.3%
Tracy Murray 45.9%
The five seasons after the 1994-1995 season the 3PT% leaders were (in order of seasons):
Tim Legler 52.2%*
Glen Rice 47%*
Dale Ellis 46.4%
Dell Curry 46.7%
Hubert Davis 49.1%
Asterisk is the two seasons that the three-point line was shorter, as it was during the featured season. Those numbers don't look that much different to me. Kerr hit 50.7% and Davis hit 49.1% in the 90s with the extended 3PT line. And Barros already lead the NBA at one point with a further back line. Plus if you remember Barros was taking a lot of deep threes during that 1994-1995 season.
The NBA as a whole shot 35.9% from 3pt that year. Just a few years later in 1999, 2000 and 2001 with the 3pt line moved back further, the league shot 35.3%, 35.4% and 35.4%.And again, the whole piece is comparing him to his peers. Every player in the league was shooting from the same 3pt line distance.
Additionally, of course his per 48, per possession or per minute, his numbers will decrease because he was 2nd in the NBA in minutes and played all 82 games. But playing a lot of minutes in the 90’s wasn’t as rare as it is today. 15 players played 38 minutes or more that year. 48 played 35 minutes+. A lot of players were playing 40+ minutes per game in the 90s, on losing or winning teams. Anthony Mason, Gary Payton, Glen Rice, Sprewell, Iverson, Kidd, Big Dog, Mighty Mouse, Grant Hill, Juwan Howard, Vin Baker, Larry Johnson, Hakeem, Malone, Robinson, Dumars, Mullin, Hardaway, etc.
To illustrate the counter to the idea that he was padding stats on a bad team, let’s look to a more recent pro. Kevin Garnett, first ballot hall of famer, missed the playoffs three years in a row during his prime. In 2006 and 2007 his teams went 33-49 and 32-48. He played 38.9 and 39.4 minutes per game. Should we disregard his rebounding titles those years because his team was bad? Was his seasons a product of just having a green light on a bad team? Obviously not.
In Barros' 13 highest scoring outputs of the season, 27-50 points, all but two games were decided by 10 points or less. Three of those games, Philadelphia won. In the remaining eight games, three of them Philly lost in overtime.
The other five games:
A one-point loss to PHX in which the score was tied to start the 4th.
A five-point loss to PHX in which Philly actually lead by five points the 3rd.
A four-point loss to CLE in which Philly was down 2 to start the 4th.
A nine-point loss to PHI in which Philly lead by 1 to start the 4th.
A 10-point loss to BOS in which Philly started to the 4th down three.
In 9 of those 13 games, he shot over 50% from 3.
He scored 10 points or less in 12 games that season. In those games, Philly lost 10 of them. Eight of those 12 games were decided by 10 points or more, including:
A 38 point win in which he scored 10.
A 38 point loss in which he scored 8.
A 30 point loss in which he scored 4.
A 21 point loss in which he scored 8.
A 20 point loss in which he scored 7.
In the seven games in which he played 31 minutes or less, every single game was decided by 14 points or more. In fact, the average scoring disparity in his seven least played games was 21 point differential. Based on that it actually seems that the closer the game was the higher his performance was, dismaying the idea that he was padding stats in blowouts.
I'm not going to go down this road but you could make the argument that because he played so many minutes and his team was so bad, that his numbers are even more rare. He was their best scoring option and their best distributor. If that wasn't the case, you could find more seasons of players on bad teams leading the NBA in multiple metrics the way Barros did.
What also really helped him despite his stature was his speed and leaping ability. Legend has it in college he ran a 4.3 40-yard dash and had a 43 inch vertical leap. Not many players in the league had that combination of speed and jumping ability. In fact, Barros believes he was the second fastest player in the league at that time.
Barros’ season was under-appreciated by the 76er’s brass. He passed on a low-ball offer to sign a long-term deal to go home to Boston. He never had another year close to it while battling injuries, decline and a diminished role for seven more seasons . For instance, he never registered more than 13 ppg or 3.8 apg in a season. His next highest VORP season of 2.3 in 1997-1998 was 50th in the NBA. He was never again a full-time starter nor did he ever play 30mpg in a season. His career averages were 22.9 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 3.3 apg and .460/.411/.858 shooting splits.
In life after his playing career he has since opened the Dana Barros Basketball Club, a sports complex in Stoughton, Massachusetts.
Was Dana Barros a generational talent that never found the right role? Was his game too ahead of its time? Was the 1994-1995 season just a statistical perfect storm? Were his numbers inflated on a poor team? The answer likely lands somewhere in the middle. When one considers the entirety of Barros’ career, this standalone season was incredibly rare.
Photo Credit:
Noren Trotman/NBAE via Getty Images
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images
Noren Trotman/NBAE via Getty Images
Quote Credit:
Mike Sielski, The Philadelphia Inquirer
Mike Sielski, The Philadelphia Inquirer
Vintage Ballers, YouTube